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 Editorials | Issues | February 2007 
Mexican President in Good Position to Counter Venezuela's Loose Cannon
 Andres Oppenheimer - Miami Herald
When President Bush visits Mexico next month, the top question in his mind is likely to be whether President Felipe Calderón will become the Latin American leader who can counter Venezuelan President Hugo Chávez's growing influence in the region.
As of now, virtually all other presidents in the region have declined that role. Most are being silenced by oil-rich Venezuela's checkbook diplomacy, or are simply cowed by Chávez's strategy of accusing any leader who defends democracy and free markets of intervening in other countries' affairs, even if the Venezuelan president lashes out daily against his neighbors' free-trade agreements and U.S. imperialism.
Right now, Chávez seems to have the monopoly on Latin America's headlines. New York University professor Patricio Navia notes that while recent elections in Mexico, Colombia, Peru and other countries were won by the most pro-globalization candidate, nobody is consistently countering Chávez's daily anti-globalization tirades.
"Latin America is waiting for a spokesman for market-friendly policies," Navia told me this week. "Of all possible candidates, only Mexico's Felipe Calderón is in a position to assume that role."
Calderón may become a regional leader by default, Navia says. Brazil's President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva cannot afford to antagonize his leftist constituency at home by openly squabbling with Chávez.
Argentine President Nestor Kirchner is hoping Venezuela will buy an additional $2 billion of Argentine bonds, on top of the $3.5 billion it has already purchased. Colombia's Álvaro Uribe is too bogged down in his country's armed conflict, and Chile's President Michelle Bachelet is not showing much will to become a regional leader.
Costa Rican President and Nobel Laureate Óscar Arias has spoken out against radical populism, but his country is too small to make a big splash in the region.
Will Calderón carry the torch? On Jan. 26, Calderón noted that, unlike countries such as Venezuela, Mexico welcomes foreign investments.
When Chávez predictably replied by calling Calderón a caballerito (little man) "subordinated to imperialism and world capitalism," Calderón rightly responded that countries should openly debate political issues "without incurring personal attacks." His implicit message: If Chávez is entitled to speak his mind daily on world events, so am I.
But on his return home, Calderón was criticized by former President Carlos Salinas de Gortari, as well as by the opposition Institutional Revolutionary Party and the leftist Party for the Democratic Revolution. Opposition legislators threatened to block Calderón's ambassadorial appointments if the government doesn't try to rebuild ties with Venezuela and Cuba.
In an effort to appease critics, Foreign Minister Patricia Espinosa testified at a congressional hearing Tuesday that Mexico will seek better ties with all Latin American countries, with no exceptions.
Will Calderón lead the fight against Chávez's narcissist-Leninist model? People very close to the Mexican president tell me he will continue speaking out for democracy, foreign investments and globalization, while trying to "put these issues in a compartment" that does not contaminate relations with the rest of Latin America, especially Central America.
My opinion: Calderón has much more to gain by emerging as a market-friendly regional leader than by cowing to former President Salinas and Mexico's old-guard politicians. Speaking out allows Calderón to put Mexico on the map, presenting his country to U.S., European and Chinese capitalists as a good investment opportunity, while shutting up is not likely to result in any meaningful opposition concessions at home.
As for the risk of being labeled a U.S. stooge by Chávez, Calderón shouldn't lose any sleep. Mexico caused the Bush administration's biggest diplomatic defeat ever when it voted, alongside Chile, against Bush's ill-conceived plan to invade Iraq at the U.N. Security Council in 2003.
And according to State Department statistics, during the last U.N. General Assembly, Mexico voted 62 times in opposition to Washington, and 19 times with it. That likely shows a much greater foreign-policy independence than, say, Venezuela's from Cuba.
Summing up, I would not be surprised if Calderón continues speaking out. From his own perspective, both he and Mexico have more to gain than to lose by his becoming a Chávez antidote in the region.
Andres Oppenheimer is a Latin America correspondent for the Miami Herald. |
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