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 News Around the Republic of Mexico | April 2006 
Presidential Hopeful will Let His Empty Chair do the Talking
 S. Lynne Walker - Copley News
| | Front-runner for the July election will be absent tonight when four of the five candidates face off in a debate. |
Mexico City - Can an empty chair win a presidential debate?
In Mexico, where the presidential campaign has been heavy on theatrics and light on the issues, most pundits say the answer is "Yes."
When four of the five presidential candidates square off tonight to debate the tough problems facing Mexico, front-runner Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador will be noticeably absent.
In his place will be a vacant podium, which Mexican commentators say evokes the image of the empty chair that is often used by challengers in U.S. debates when an incumbent refuses a face-to-face duel.
Lopez Obrador's opponents hope the empty chair will show voters that the leading candidate is afraid - or unwilling - to engage in a democratic debate, that he is as yellow as his Democratic Revolution Party's trademark color. But political analysts say it will send the unintended message to voters that their favorite in the July 2 presidential election is the victim of a pack of political bullies.
"The perception is that they are debating with someone who cannot defend himself," said political analyst Jorge Chabat. "They are going to allow Lopez Obrador to position himself as a victim. If he keeps his mouth shut, he wins."
Lopez Obrador, 52, rarely keeps his controversial views to himself. He attacked President Vicente Fox, whose popularity rating is still above 60 percent, telling him to shut up after accusing him of illegally supporting the campaign of his party's candidate, Felipe Calderon. Then, Lopez Obrador likened the president to a "chachalaca," a wild bird from Lopez Obrador's native Tabasco state known for its scandalous squawking.
"He's an authoritarian, intolerant type who's sure he knows the right way to proceed," said George Grayson, who recently published a book on Lopez Obrador. "He's surrounded himself with 'yes' people. What his people are saying, because they know that's his inclination, is 'don't go into the debate,' instead of giving objective advice."
When Lopez Obrador, the leftist former mayor of Mexico City, announced months ago that he would not participate in the first nationally televised debate of the campaign, he was so far ahead in the polls that he didn't think he needed to face his opponents.
He boasted that he was "politically indestructible" and said he would debate only once - a month before the election.
Since then, his lead has plummeted. Lopez Obrador now has 38 percent support, according to a poll published this month by El Universal newspaper. His lead over the National Action Party's Calderon has narrowed to four points. Roberto Madrazo of the Institutional Revolutionary Party, or PRI, trails with 25 percent.
With Calderon and Madrazo fighting for second place, Lopez Obrador "has the advantage," said political analyst Federico Estevez. "He can say he's the champ and the other guys are fighting over the privilege of a title fight with him."
Absent the frontrunner, "the debate is really about whether Felipe Calderon can perform up to expectations and whether Madrazo can surpass very low expectations," Estevez said. "If Felipe comes out on top, that gives him more momentum and that's bad for Lopez Obrador. If Madrazo appears to do better than expected and Felipe worse than expected, then you should see a boost for Madrazo, which would kill the race because he won't come up enough to challenge Lopez Obrador."
On the issues, political analysts agree that Lopez Obrador is a weak candidate.
"He's sort of a mud splatterer," said Estevez. "He just starts accusing people of being criminals. I don't think you can get away with that in a presidential debate." |
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