| | |  News Around the Republic of Mexico | July 2009 
Mexican Ruling Party to Struggle at Mid-Term Vote
 Alistair Bell - Reuters
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July 05, 2009
| | Mexico's President Felipe Calderon shows his thumb marked in ink after voting during elections in Mexico City, Sunday, July 5, 2009. Mexicans went to the polls Sunday in elections for hundreds of mayors, six governorships and all seats in the lower house of Congress, in a vote that could decide the future of Calderon's anti-crime and economic policies. (AP/Marco Ugarte) | |
Mexico City - Mexicans voted on Sunday in mid-term elections for Congress where President Felipe Calderon's party is likely to lose ground, leaving him with an uphill struggle to achieve economic reforms.
Mexico's economy is in deep recession, mostly due to the downturn in the United States, and oil output is falling fast.
Calderon, a conservative, wants to overhaul the energy sector to allow more private investment in the search for oil in the Gulf of Mexico. He also seeks to reform the tax system.
But his National Action Party, or PAN, trails the opposition Institutional Revolutionary Party, or PRI, by around 5 percentage points in opinion polls.
Even if the PAN wins, Calderon will probably fall short of the majority he needs to push reforms through the lower house of Congress without long, difficult negotiations.
Calderon is personally popular, but the economy is likely to weigh against his party, which ended 71 years of one-party rule in 2000 and promised change.
"We're in the worst crisis," said pensioner Salvador Zavala, 66, as he voted in a neighborhood just north of the capital. "If there are no jobs, that generates crime," said Thelma Flores, 46, a government worker.
The election should not hurt Calderon's war against drug cartels. More than 12,300 people have died since Calderon dispatched the army to battle drug gangs in 2006, but Congress has not played a major role in the fight.
Calderon has lacked a majority in Congress since taking office in 2006, but more than ever he needs backing from opposition deputies to approve reforms. Mexico's tax take is one of the lowest in Latin America and foreign investors want to see a fiscal overhaul.
Decades of sluggish economic growth have kept most Mexicans poor and spurred millions to cross the U.S. border in search of work.
Mexican oil output has dropped to its lowest in 16 years, eroding a pillar of public finance, and the economy is set to shrink 6 percent or more this year due to the recession.
The centrist PRI will likely take first place in the lower house, doubling its number of seats to more than 210, leapfrogging the struggling left-wing opposition, and leaving the PAN in second place with 175 seats or less.
If the vote is close, the two parties are unlikely to produce major economic reforms in the next three years, said Allyson Benton of the Eurasia Group.
"As a result, the parties would likely continue to cooperate after the elections, even though the extent of this cooperation will be limited to producing only minor economic policy reforms," she said.
The PRI might be more willing to help Calderon with reforms if it wins big on Sunday, so as to get Mexico's economic house in order ahead of the 2012 presidential election.
All 500 seats in the lower house of Congress are on the table in Sunday's vote. Voters will also elect six state governors and hundreds of mayors.
(Additional reporting by Noe Ramirez and Michael O'Boyle) |
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