| | |  Business News 
Mexico Raises 2010 Growth Estimate as Demand Recovers
 Alexander Cuadros - Bloomberg
go to original
February 18, 2010
Mexico’s government raised its estimate for 2010 economic growth, citing signs of recovery in internal and external demand after the country’s biggest slump since the Great Depression.
Gross domestic product will rise 3.9 percent this year, up from a previous forecast of 3 percent, the Finance Ministry said today in an e-mailed statement.
“They’re being very careful, conservative,” said Gabriel Casillas, JPMorgan Chase & Co.’s chief economist in Mexico City. “The improvement that has been seen in manufacturing and employment translates into higher consumer demand.”
Deputy Finance Minister Alejandro Werner said in an interview Feb. 5 that the government was considering raising its growth outlook, dependent on economic data. Since then, the national statistics agency reported that Mexico’s industrial output rose in December for the first time since 2008.
Auto production in particular is helping spur growth, and the currency’s 15 percent decline over the past three years will keep Mexican exports competitive, Casillas said.
Mexican auto production may rise 20 percent this year as demand locally and in the neighboring U.S. rebounds after the global economic crisis, Ana Ruth Solano, the Economy Ministry official who oversees the industry, said Feb. 11.
JPMorgan earlier this month raised its forecast for 2010 economic expansion to 4.5 percent from 3.5 percent.
The peso may gain to 12.4 per dollar by year-end, according to the median of 17 forecasts compiled by Bloomberg. It weakened 0.3 percent to 12.8835 per U.S. dollar at 4:13 p.m. New York time.
“The estimates for recovery this year allow for moderate optimism on the evolution of the Mexican economy in the short term,” the ministry’s statement said.
The central bank increased its growth forecasts in January, saying the economy will expand 3.2 percent to 4.2 percent in 2010 and 2011. The economy contracted about 7 percent last year, the biggest drop since the 1930s, the bank estimated.
To contact the reporter on this story: Alexander Cuadros in Mexico City at acuadros(at)bloomberg.net
|
|
| |
Vallarta Weddings
Tell a Friend
Site Map
Print this Page
Email Us