| | |  Business News 
Mexican Jobless, Inflation Data Send Mixed Signals
 Jason Lange - Reuters
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September 23, 2010
 |  | Domestic consumers could be in a better position to help drive growth even as the U.S. economic slowdown weakens growth in Mexico's factory output. |  | | |
Mexico City - Mexico's jobless rate fell more than expected in August but the annual inflation rate slowed in early September, giving mixed signals about the strength of the country's recovery from a deep recession.
The unemployment rate fell to 5.4 percent, the national statistics agency said on Thursday. Economists in a Reuters poll had predicted a jobless rate of 5.6 percent, down from July's 5.7 percent.
That suggests domestic consumers could be in a better position to help drive growth even as the U.S. economic slowdown weakens growth in Mexico's factory output. Some 80 percent of Mexico's exports go to its northern neighbor.
At the same time, however, the rate of increase in consumer prices slowed, rising 3.65 percent in the 12 months through Sept. 15, down from 3.71 percent in the year through mid-August, the central bank said.
Consumer prices rose 0.4 percent in the first half of September, the bank said.
Tame inflation is in part a sign that the economy is still underperforming, said Goldman Sachs economist Alberto Ramos.
While Brazil, Chile and Peru have raised interest rates this year to cool their better-performing economies, analysts see Mexico keeping rates on hold until well into next year.
"The central bank is increasingly comfortable with the current monetary stance given ... inflation figures (and a) still negative output gap," Ramos said in a note to clients following the release of the data.
Mexico is limping back from one of the steepest economic declines seen anywhere in the world in 2009, and total output isn't seen returning to pre-recession levels until at least 2011.
"Inflation is not looking like a source of pressure at the moment," said Santander economist Rafael Camarena.
A slowdown in the United States is already cooling growth in Mexican factory output.
A separate report on trade data showed that manufacturing exports rose 2.1 percent in August from a month earlier. But a trend reading calculated by the statistics institute showed growth in factory exports slowed for the 11th straight month.
Mexico's economy shrank 6.5 percent in 2009, and analysts polled recently by the central bank see it expanding just 4.6 percent this year.
The seasonally adjusted unemployment rate fell to 5.2 percent in August from 5.37 percent a month earlier.
(Additional reporting by Mica Rosenberg and Noe Torres; Editing by James Dalgleish)
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