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Puerto Vallarta News NetworkNews Around the Republic of Mexico 

Mexican Companies Poised for Profit on Cuba Opening

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January 5, 2015

After the United States, Mexico has the most businesses that would get a boost from an end to the 1960 US-Cuba trade embargo, and the island's possible transition into a desirable Caribbean destination.

Mexico City, Mexico — US cruise lines and hoteliers aren't the only potential beneficiaries from a thaw in relations with Cuba. Onboard sodas and materials to build resorts could come from Mexican providers.

Coca-Cola Femsa and Cemex are among the Mexican companies poised to capture a slice of the expansion of the Cuba market, according to ING Group.

"After the US, Mexico has the most businesses that would get a boost from the end of the Cold War freeze," Eric Conrads, an ING money manager based in New York, said in an interview. "Cuba is right next door. It's a natural market. The Cuba Libre cocktail uses Coke. And the libre represents freedom, so it's an interesting mix."

Cuba's possible transition into a desirable Caribbean destination - from pariah status under the 1960 US trade embargo - was set in motion last month when President Obama moved to restore diplomatic ties. Even with the embargo still in effect, Obama's moves will make it easier for companies to export construction, telecommunications, and farm products.

A well-developed Latin American distribution chain puts Coca-Cola Femsa, the biggest franchised Coke bottler, in better position to take advantage of an eventual opening to Cuba than Atlanta-based Coca-Cola, said Ryan Paylor, a Herzfeld Fund senior trader.

Coca-Cola Femsa is set up "to easily make the transition," Paylor said in an interview. As for Monterrey-based Cemex, Cuba's decades-long lack of capital investment could be a boost for the cement producer if US spending triggers a construction boom."

"Cuban infrastructure is pretty dilapidated since the embargo went into place," Paylor said.

Consumer goods and building supplies have been an early focus as investors search for possible winners under a US-Cuba rapprochement, in part because of the potential of the island nation of 11 million to flourish again as a tourist venue.

According to a November 24th Securities and Exchange Commission filing, companies with major stakes also include Carlos Slim's America Movil, Wal-Mart de Mexico, and the soft-drink company and convenience-store operator Fomento Economico Mexicano, which controls Coca-Cola Femsa.

Cemex says it would be interested in Cuba if US restrictions are lifted.

"We're definitely the biggest cement producer and trader in the Caribbean," said Maher Al-Haffar, Cemex's vice president of investor relations. "To the extent that Cuba becomes a bona fide market for our products, of course we're going to be doing our best to participate in that growth."

America Movil could stand to benefit from the Cuban public's lack of mobile phones, said Jose Otero, director of Latin America and the Caribbean for the trade group 4G Americas.

"In telecoms, the low penetration level in all types of services makes it one of the most attractive places to invest," Otero said in a telephone interview. "In terms of population, it's equivalent to a Chile, for example."

"In addition to soft drinks, telecoms, and cement, Mexico could also step in to ship oil," said Luis Willard, an analyst at Corporativo GBM in Mexico City, "but with the US embargo still in place, it's too soon to focus on Mexican companies that could benefit from the policy shift...it's a very, very initial step. Lots of time would need to pass before thinking about how this will translate into a positive impact for any specific company."

Original Story